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Middlesbrough v Southampton prediction

Sat 9 May, 12:30 Championship Full time 0–0
Our pick, revealed after full time Lost
Middlesbrough to win 48%
Middlesbrough 48% Draw 25% Southampton 28%
Best price2.15 WilliamHill Fair price2.10 from our 48%

How we got to 48%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 45%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 52%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceMiddlesbrough to win 48%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Middlesbrough All games L D W W D
0–1 v PTM 2–2 at IPS 1–0 v SHF 5–1 v WAT 2–2 at WXH
Southampton All games W W D D W
3–0 v BBR 2–1 at SWA 2–2 v BSC 2–2 v IPS 3–1 at PNE

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes61% Both teams scored in 3 of Middlesbrough's last 6 home games. Both teams scored in 6 of Southampton's last 6 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerMiddlesbroughDrawSouthampton
WilliamHill 2.15 3.30 3.10
bet365 2.05 3.50 3.40
Betfair 2.00 3.50 3.25
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Middlesbrough v Southampton: prediction and result

Middlesbrough hosted Southampton in the Championship on Saturday 9 May, and it finished 0–0.

Middlesbrough are in decent form: 2 won, 2 drawn and 1 lost from their last 5, 8 points from a possible 15. They have scored 10 and conceded 6 in that run. Their last game was a 2–2 draw away at Wrexham.

Southampton are in strong form: 3 won, 2 drawn and 0 lost from their last 5, 11 points from a possible 15. They have scored 12 and conceded 6 in that run. Their last game was a 3–1 win away at Preston North End.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 2.15 for Middlesbrough, 3.50 for the draw and 3.40 for Southampton. The bookmakers make Middlesbrough favourites, at about 45% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Middlesbrough to win, with a 48% chance. The market puts it at 45% and our match model at 52%, and blending those with recent form gives 48%. The best price, 2.15 at WilliamHill, is longer than our fair price of 2.10, so there is value in it. The pick lost.

How our predictions work · Championship table

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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.