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Southampton v Middlesbrough prediction

Tue 12 May, 20:00 Championship Full time 2–1
Our pick, revealed after full time Won
Southampton to win 39%
Southampton 39% Draw 28% Middlesbrough 33%
Best price2.45 Betfair Fair price2.55 from our 39%

How we got to 39%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 38%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 40%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceSouthampton to win 39%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Southampton All games W D D W D
2–1 at SWA 2–2 v BSC 2–2 v IPS 3–1 at PNE 0–0 at MID
Middlesbrough All games D W W D D
2–2 at IPS 1–0 v SHF 5–1 v WAT 2–2 at WXH 0–0 v SOU

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes58% Both teams scored in 3 of Southampton's last 6 home games. Both teams scored in 4 of Middlesbrough's last 6 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerSouthamptonDrawMiddlesbrough
Betfair 2.45 3.30 2.80
bet365 2.45 3.30 2.80
WilliamHill 2.40 3.20 2.88
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Southampton v Middlesbrough: prediction and result

Southampton hosted Middlesbrough in the Championship on Tuesday 12 May and won 2–1.

Southampton are in decent form: 2 won, 3 drawn and 0 lost from their last 5, 9 points from a possible 15. They have scored 9 and conceded 6 in that run. Their last game was a 0–0 draw away at Middlesbrough.

Middlesbrough are in decent form: 2 won, 3 drawn and 0 lost from their last 5, 9 points from a possible 15. They have scored 10 and conceded 5 in that run. Their last game was a 0–0 draw at home to Southampton.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 2.45 for Southampton, 3.30 for the draw and 2.88 for Middlesbrough. The bookmakers make Southampton favourites, at about 39% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Southampton to win, with a 39% chance. The market puts it at 38% and our match model at 40%, and blending those with recent form gives 39%. The best price, 2.45 at Betfair, is shorter than our fair price of 2.55. The pick won.

How our predictions work · Championship table

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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.