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Port Vale v Burton Albion prediction

Sat 7 Feb, 12:31 League One Full time 2–2
Our pick, revealed after full time Lost
Port Vale to win 42%
Port Vale 42% Draw 27% Burton 31%
Best price2.40 WilliamHill Fair price2.38 from our 42%

How we got to 42%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 38%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 48%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chancePort Vale to win 42%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Port Vale All games W L L W L
5–1 v BLK 0–3 at MAN 1–3 v EXE 1–0 at LEY 0–1 v AWM
Burton Albion All games W L L D L
3–1 v HDD 1–2 at LNC 1–2 at BOL 2–2 v CDF 1–2 v DNR

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes49% Both teams scored in 2 of Port Vale's last 6 home games. Both teams scored in 3 of Burton Albion's last 6 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerPort ValeDrawBurton
WilliamHill 2.40 3.10 2.80
bet365 2.40 3.30 2.80
Betfair 2.38 3.00 2.88
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Port Vale v Burton Albion: prediction and result

Port Vale hosted Burton Albion in the League One on Saturday 7 February, and it finished 2–2.

Port Vale are in mixed form: 2 won, 0 drawn and 3 lost from their last 5, 6 points from a possible 15. They have scored 7 and conceded 8 in that run. Their last game was a 0–1 defeat at home to AFC Wimbledon.

Burton Albion are in mixed form: 1 won, 1 drawn and 3 lost from their last 5, 4 points from a possible 15. They have scored 8 and conceded 9 in that run. Their last game was a 1–2 defeat at home to Doncaster Rovers.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 2.40 for Port Vale, 3.30 for the draw and 2.88 for Burton. The bookmakers make Port Vale favourites, at about 39% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Port Vale to win, with a 42% chance. The market puts it at 38% and our match model at 48%, and blending those with recent form gives 42%. The best price, 2.40 at WilliamHill, is longer than our fair price of 2.38, so there is value in it. The pick lost.

How our predictions work · League One table

More League One predictions

All League One picks that week →
0–1 FT Port Vale v AFC Wimbledon Port Vale to win 41% 2–2 FT Barnsley v Northampton Town Barnsley to win 53% 1–2 FT Burton Albion v Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers to win 41% 2–1 FT Luton Town v Bradford City Luton Town to win 52% 3–2 FT Bolton Wanderers v Barnsley Bolton Wanderers to win 61% 0–0 FT Stockport County v Leyton Orient Stockport County to win 57% 4–0 FT Wycombe Wanderers v Doncaster Rovers Wycombe Wanderers to win 49% 2–2 FT Huddersfield Town v Blackpool Huddersfield Town to win 48%
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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.