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Derby County v Stoke City prediction

Mon 6 Apr, 15:00 Championship Full time 2–0
Our pick, revealed after full time Won
Derby County to win 52%
Derby 52% Draw 26% Stoke 22%
Best price1.73 WilliamHill Fair price1.92 from our 52%

How we got to 52%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 55%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 48%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceDerby County to win 52%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Derby County All games W L W W L
2–1 v SHF 0–1 at MLW 1–0 at PTM 1–0 v BRC 2–3 at CVC
Stoke City All games L D W L W
0–2 at SWA 3–3 v IPS 3–1 v WAT 1–3 at PNE 2–0 v SHF

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes53% Both teams scored in 4 of Derby County's last 6 home games. Both teams scored in 3 of Stoke City's last 6 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerDerbyDrawStoke
WilliamHill 1.73 3.60 4.50
Betfair 1.67 3.75 4.50
bet365 1.66 3.90 4.75
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Derby County v Stoke City: prediction and result

Derby County hosted Stoke City in the Championship on Monday 6 April and won 2–0.

Derby County are in decent form: 3 won, 0 drawn and 2 lost from their last 5, 9 points from a possible 15. They have scored 6 and conceded 5 in that run. Their last game was a 2–3 defeat away at Coventry City.

Stoke City are in decent form: 2 won, 1 drawn and 2 lost from their last 5, 7 points from a possible 15. They have scored 9 and conceded 9 in that run. Their last game was a 2–0 win at home to Sheffield Wednesday.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 1.73 for Derby, 3.90 for the draw and 4.75 for Stoke. The bookmakers make Derby County favourites, at about 55% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Derby County to win, with a 52% chance. The market puts it at 55% and our match model at 48%, and blending those with recent form gives 52%. The best price, 1.73 at WilliamHill, is shorter than our fair price of 1.92. The pick won.

How our predictions work · Championship table

More Championship predictions

All Championship picks that week →
1–2 FT Middlesbrough v Millwall Middlesbrough to win 51% 2–0 FT Stoke City v Sheffield Wednesday Stoke City to win 65% 0–1 FT Birmingham City v Blackburn Rovers Birmingham City to win 53% 2–2 FT Leicester City v Preston North End Leicester City to win 53% 3–3 FT Sheffield United v Swansea City Sheffield United to win 52% 1–1 FT Norwich City v Portsmouth Norwich City to win 50% 2–2 FT West Bromwich Albion v Wrexham West Bromwich Albion to win 48% 2–1 FT Queens Park Rangers v Watford Queens Park Rangers to win 44%
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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.