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Swansea City v Derby County prediction

Tue 25 Nov, 19:45 Championship Full time 1–2
Our pick, revealed after full time Lost
Swansea City to win 41%
Swansea 41% Draw 29% Derby 30%
Best price2.25 WilliamHill Fair price2.44 from our 41%

How we got to 41%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 42%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 40%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceSwansea City to win 41%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Swansea City All games W D L L L
2–1 v NOR 1–1 at CHA 1–2 at PNE 1–4 v IPS 0–3 at BSC
Derby County All games W W W W L
1–0 v QPR 3–1 at SHU 2–1 v HUL 2–1 at BBR 2–3 v WAT

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes49% Both teams scored in 2 of Swansea City's last 3 home games. Both teams scored in 2 of Derby County's last 3 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerSwanseaDrawDerby
WilliamHill 2.25 2.90 3.50
bet365 2.20 3.00 3.60
Betfair 2.10 2.90 3.25
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Swansea City v Derby County: prediction and result

Swansea City hosted Derby County in the Championship on Tuesday 25 November, and Derby County won 1–2 away from home.

Swansea City are in mixed form: 1 won, 1 drawn and 3 lost from their last 5, 4 points from a possible 15. They have scored 5 and conceded 11 in that run. Their last game was a 0–3 defeat away at Bristol City.

Derby County are in strong form: 4 won, 0 drawn and 1 lost from their last 5, 12 points from a possible 15. They have scored 10 and conceded 6 in that run. Their last game was a 2–3 defeat at home to Watford.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 2.25 for Swansea, 3.00 for the draw and 3.60 for Derby. The bookmakers make Swansea City favourites, at about 42% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Swansea City to win, with a 41% chance. The market puts it at 42% and our match model at 40%, and blending those with recent form gives 41%. The best price, 2.25 at WilliamHill, is shorter than our fair price of 2.44. The pick lost.

How our predictions work · Championship table

More Championship predictions

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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.