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Middlesbrough v Derby County prediction

Sat 29 Nov, 15:00 Championship Full time 2–1
Our pick, revealed after full time Won
Middlesbrough to win 48%
Middlesbrough 48% Draw 26% Derby 26%
Best price1.95 WilliamHill Fair price2.09 from our 48%

How we got to 48%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 48%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 47%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceMiddlesbrough to win 48%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Middlesbrough All games L D W D L
0–3 at WAT 1–1 at LEI 2–1 v BRC 1–1 at OXF 2–4 v CVC
Derby County All games W W W L W
3–1 at SHU 2–1 v HUL 2–1 at BBR 2–3 v WAT 2–1 at SWA

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes53% Both teams scored in 4 of Middlesbrough's last 4 home games. Both teams scored in 3 of Derby County's last 4 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerMiddlesbroughDrawDerby
WilliamHill 1.95 3.30 3.80
bet365 1.95 3.40 3.80
Betfair 1.85 3.40 3.90
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Middlesbrough v Derby County: prediction and result

Middlesbrough hosted Derby County in the Championship on Saturday 29 November and won 2–1.

Middlesbrough are in mixed form: 1 won, 2 drawn and 2 lost from their last 5, 5 points from a possible 15. They have scored 6 and conceded 10 in that run. Their last game was a 2–4 defeat at home to Coventry City.

Derby County are in strong form: 4 won, 0 drawn and 1 lost from their last 5, 12 points from a possible 15. They have scored 11 and conceded 7 in that run. Their last game was a 2–1 win away at Swansea City.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 1.95 for Middlesbrough, 3.40 for the draw and 3.90 for Derby. The bookmakers make Middlesbrough favourites, at about 48% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Middlesbrough to win, with a 48% chance. The market puts it at 48% and our match model at 47%, and blending those with recent form gives 48%. The best price, 1.95 at WilliamHill, is shorter than our fair price of 2.09. The pick won.

How our predictions work · Championship table

More Championship predictions

All Championship picks that week →
1–1 FT Watford v Preston North End Watford to win 49% 0–2 FT Hull City v Ipswich Town Ipswich Town to win 49% 1–1 FT Norwich City v Oxford United Norwich City to win 47% 3–0 FT Stoke City v Charlton Athletic Stoke City to win 46% 1–2 FT Swansea City v Derby County Swansea City to win 41% 2–4 FT Middlesbrough v Coventry City Coventry City to win 37% 3–0 FT Southampton v Leicester City Southampton to win 46% 3–0 FT Sheffield United v Portsmouth Sheffield United to win 54%
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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.