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Millwall v Southampton prediction

Sat 29 Nov, 15:00 Championship Full time 3–2
Our pick, revealed after full time Lost
Southampton to win 39%
Millwall 34% Draw 27% Southampton 39%
Best price2.30 WilliamHill Fair price2.54 from our 39%

How we got to 39%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 41%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 36%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceSouthampton to win 39%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Millwall All games D L D L W
2–2 at OXF 0–4 at BRC 1–1 v PNE 1–3 at PTM 1–0 v SHF
Southampton All games L W W W W
0–2 v PNE 2–1 at QPR 3–1 v SHF 5–1 at CHA 3–0 v LEI

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes55% Both teams scored in 1 of Millwall's last 4 home games. Both teams scored in 4 of Southampton's last 4 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerMillwallDrawSouthampton
WilliamHill 3.00 3.20 2.30
bet365 3.00 3.50 2.25
Betfair 2.90 3.25 2.15
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Millwall v Southampton: prediction and result

Millwall hosted Southampton in the Championship on Saturday 29 November and won 3–2.

Millwall are in mixed form: 1 won, 2 drawn and 2 lost from their last 5, 5 points from a possible 15. They have scored 5 and conceded 10 in that run. Their last game was a 1–0 win at home to Sheffield Wednesday.

Southampton are in strong form: 4 won, 0 drawn and 1 lost from their last 5, 12 points from a possible 15. They have scored 13 and conceded 5 in that run. Their last game was a 3–0 win at home to Leicester City.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 3.00 for Millwall, 3.50 for the draw and 2.30 for Southampton. The bookmakers make Southampton favourites, at about 41% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Southampton to win, with a 39% chance. The market puts it at 41% and our match model at 36%, and blending those with recent form gives 39%. The best price, 2.30 at WilliamHill, is shorter than our fair price of 2.54. The pick lost.

How our predictions work · Championship table

More Championship predictions

All Championship picks that week →
1–1 FT Watford v Preston North End Watford to win 49% 0–2 FT Hull City v Ipswich Town Ipswich Town to win 49% 1–1 FT Norwich City v Oxford United Norwich City to win 47% 3–0 FT Stoke City v Charlton Athletic Stoke City to win 46% 1–2 FT Swansea City v Derby County Swansea City to win 41% 2–4 FT Middlesbrough v Coventry City Coventry City to win 37% 3–0 FT Southampton v Leicester City Southampton to win 46% 3–0 FT Sheffield United v Portsmouth Sheffield United to win 54%
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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.