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Derby County v Millwall prediction

Wed 10 Dec, 19:45 Championship Full time 1–1
Our pick, revealed after full time Lost
Millwall to win 37%
Derby 34% Draw 29% Millwall 37%
Best price2.70 bet365 Fair price2.71 from our 37%

How we got to 37%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 35%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 40%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceMillwall to win 37%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Derby County All games W L W L L
2–1 at BBR 2–3 v WAT 2–1 at SWA 1–2 at MID 1–3 v LEI
Millwall All games D L W W W
1–1 v PNE 1–3 at PTM 1–0 v SHF 3–2 v SOU 1–0 at BSC

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes51% Both teams scored in 3 of Derby County's last 5 home games. Both teams scored in 3 of Millwall's last 5 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerDerbyDrawMillwall
WilliamHill 2.80 3.00 2.62
bet365 2.75 3.10 2.70
Betfair 2.60 2.90 2.60
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Derby County v Millwall: prediction and result

Derby County hosted Millwall in the Championship on Wednesday 10 December, and it finished 1–1.

Derby County are in mixed form: 2 won, 0 drawn and 3 lost from their last 5, 6 points from a possible 15. They have scored 8 and conceded 10 in that run. Their last game was a 1–3 defeat at home to Leicester City.

Millwall are in decent form: 3 won, 1 drawn and 1 lost from their last 5, 10 points from a possible 15. They have scored 7 and conceded 6 in that run. Their last game was a 1–0 win away at Bristol City.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 2.80 for Derby, 3.10 for the draw and 2.70 for Millwall. The bookmakers see little between Millwall and Derby County here.

Our prediction: Millwall to win, with a 37% chance. The market puts it at 35% and our match model at 40%, and blending those with recent form gives 37%. The best price, 2.70 at bet365, is shorter than our fair price of 2.71. The pick lost.

How our predictions work · Championship table

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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.