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Birmingham City v Derby County prediction

Fri 26 Dec, 12:30 Championship Full time 1–1
Our pick, revealed after full time Lost
Birmingham City to win 54%
Birmingham 54% Draw 26% Derby 20%
Best price1.95 WilliamHill Fair price1.84 from our 54%

How we got to 54%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 48%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 63%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceBirmingham City to win 54%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Birmingham City All games W L L D L
2–1 v WAT 1–3 at SOU 1–2 at QPR 1–1 v CHA 0–3 at SHU
Derby County All games L L D W D
1–2 at MID 1–3 v LEI 1–1 v MLW 3–0 at SHF 1–1 v PTM

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes52% Both teams scored in 4 of Birmingham City's last 6 home games. Both teams scored in 4 of Derby County's last 6 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerBirminghamDrawDerby
WilliamHill 1.95 3.25 3.90
bet365 1.95 3.30 4.00
Betfair 1.87 3.30 4.10
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Birmingham City v Derby County: prediction and result

Birmingham City hosted Derby County in the Championship on Friday 26 December, and it finished 1–1.

Birmingham City are in mixed form: 1 won, 1 drawn and 3 lost from their last 5, 4 points from a possible 15. They have scored 5 and conceded 10 in that run. Their last game was a 0–3 defeat away at Sheffield United.

Derby County are in mixed form: 1 won, 2 drawn and 2 lost from their last 5, 5 points from a possible 15. They have scored 7 and conceded 7 in that run. Their last game was a 1–1 draw at home to Portsmouth.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 1.95 for Birmingham, 3.30 for the draw and 4.10 for Derby. The bookmakers make Birmingham City favourites, at about 48% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Birmingham City to win, with a 54% chance. The market puts it at 48% and our match model at 63%, and blending those with recent form gives 54%. The best price, 1.95 at WilliamHill, is longer than our fair price of 1.84, so there is value in it. The pick lost.

How our predictions work · Championship table

More Championship predictions

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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.