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Birmingham City v Southampton prediction

Mon 29 Dec, 20:15 Championship Full time 1–1
Our pick, revealed after full time Lost
Birmingham City to win 47%
Birmingham 47% Draw 25% Southampton 28%
Best price2.40 WilliamHill Fair price2.15 from our 47%

How we got to 47%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 39%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 58%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceBirmingham City to win 47%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Birmingham City All games L L D L D
1–3 at SOU 1–2 at QPR 1–1 v CHA 0–3 at SHU 1–1 v DRB
Southampton All games W W L D L
3–1 v BRC 3–2 v WBA 1–2 at NOR 1–1 v CVC 1–2 at OXF

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes62% Both teams scored in 4 of Birmingham City's last 6 home games. Both teams scored in 6 of Southampton's last 6 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerBirminghamDrawSouthampton
WilliamHill 2.40 3.40 2.70
Betfair 2.38 3.40 2.70
bet365 2.35 3.50 2.87
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Birmingham City v Southampton: prediction and result

Birmingham City hosted Southampton in the Championship on Monday 29 December, and it finished 1–1.

Birmingham City are short of results: 0 won, 2 drawn and 3 lost from their last 5, 2 points from a possible 15. They have scored 4 and conceded 10 in that run. Their last game was a 1–1 draw at home to Derby County.

Southampton are in decent form: 2 won, 1 drawn and 2 lost from their last 5, 7 points from a possible 15. They have scored 9 and conceded 8 in that run. Their last game was a 1–2 defeat away at Oxford United.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 2.40 for Birmingham, 3.50 for the draw and 2.87 for Southampton. The bookmakers make Birmingham City favourites, at about 40% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Birmingham City to win, with a 47% chance. The market puts it at 39% and our match model at 58%, and blending those with recent form gives 47%. The best price, 2.40 at WilliamHill, is longer than our fair price of 2.15, so there is value in it. The pick lost.

How our predictions work · Championship table

More Championship predictions

All Championship picks that week →
1–1 FT Birmingham City v Derby County Birmingham City to win 54% 0–0 FT Millwall v Ipswich Town Ipswich Town to win 43% 1–0 FT Coventry City v Swansea City Coventry City to win 61% 0–0 FT Middlesbrough v Blackburn Rovers Middlesbrough to win 52% 2–2 FT Sheffield Wednesday v Hull City Hull City to win 52% 1–2 FT West Bromwich Albion v Bristol City West Bromwich Albion to win 49% 2–1 FT Oxford United v Southampton Southampton to win 48% 1–0 FT Norwich City v Charlton Athletic Norwich City to win 46%
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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.