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Leicester City v Derby County prediction

Mon 29 Dec, 19:45 Championship Full time 2–1
Our pick, revealed after full time Won
Leicester City to win 45%
Leicester 45% Draw 27% Derby 28%
Best price2.05 WilliamHill Fair price2.25 from our 45%

How we got to 45%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 46%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 43%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceLeicester City to win 45%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Leicester City All games W D W L L
3–1 at DRB 2–2 at BSC 3–1 v IPS 1–4 at QPR 1–2 v WAT
Derby County All games L D W D D
1–3 v LEI 1–1 v MLW 3–0 at SHF 1–1 v PTM 1–1 at BRC

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes59% Both teams scored in 5 of Leicester City's last 6 home games. Both teams scored in 5 of Derby County's last 6 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerLeicesterDrawDerby
WilliamHill 2.05 3.20 3.60
Betfair 2.05 3.40 3.70
bet365 2.05 3.30 3.50
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Leicester City v Derby County: prediction and result

Leicester City hosted Derby County in the Championship on Monday 29 December and won 2–1.

Leicester City are in decent form: 2 won, 1 drawn and 2 lost from their last 5, 7 points from a possible 15. They have scored 10 and conceded 10 in that run. Their last game was a 1–2 defeat at home to Watford.

Derby County are in mixed form: 1 won, 3 drawn and 1 lost from their last 5, 6 points from a possible 15. They have scored 7 and conceded 6 in that run. Their last game was a 1–1 draw away at Birmingham City.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 2.05 for Leicester, 3.40 for the draw and 3.70 for Derby. The bookmakers make Leicester City favourites, at about 46% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Leicester City to win, with a 45% chance. The market puts it at 46% and our match model at 43%, and blending those with recent form gives 45%. The best price, 2.05 at WilliamHill, is shorter than our fair price of 2.25. The pick won.

How our predictions work · Championship table

More Championship predictions

All Championship picks that week →
1–1 FT Birmingham City v Derby County Birmingham City to win 54% 0–0 FT Millwall v Ipswich Town Ipswich Town to win 43% 1–0 FT Coventry City v Swansea City Coventry City to win 61% 0–0 FT Middlesbrough v Blackburn Rovers Middlesbrough to win 52% 2–2 FT Sheffield Wednesday v Hull City Hull City to win 52% 1–2 FT West Bromwich Albion v Bristol City West Bromwich Albion to win 49% 2–1 FT Oxford United v Southampton Southampton to win 48% 1–0 FT Norwich City v Charlton Athletic Norwich City to win 46%
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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.