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Millwall v Bristol City prediction

Mon 29 Dec, 19:45 Championship Full time 2–1
Our pick, revealed after full time Won
Millwall to win 40%
Millwall 40% Draw 28% Bristol 31%
Best price2.40 bet365 Fair price2.50 from our 40%

How we got to 40%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 39%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 41%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceMillwall to win 40%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Millwall All games W D L L D
1–0 at BSC 1–1 at DRB 1–3 v HUL 0–2 at BBR 0–0 v IPS
Bristol City All games L D L W W
0–1 v MLW 2–2 v LEI 0–1 at CVC 2–0 v MID 2–1 at WBA

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes50% Both teams scored in 3 of Millwall's last 6 home games. Both teams scored in 3 of Bristol City's last 6 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerMillwallDrawBristol
bet365 2.40 3.20 3.00
WilliamHill 2.38 3.20 2.90
Betfair 2.38 3.25 3.00
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Millwall v Bristol City: prediction and result

Millwall hosted Bristol City in the Championship on Monday 29 December and won 2–1.

Millwall are in mixed form: 1 won, 2 drawn and 2 lost from their last 5, 5 points from a possible 15. They have scored 3 and conceded 6 in that run. Their last game was a 0–0 draw at home to Ipswich Town.

Bristol City are in decent form: 2 won, 1 drawn and 2 lost from their last 5, 7 points from a possible 15. They have scored 6 and conceded 5 in that run. Their last game was a 2–1 win away at West Bromwich Albion.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 2.40 for Millwall, 3.25 for the draw and 3.00 for Bristol. The bookmakers make Millwall favourites, at about 39% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Millwall to win, with a 40% chance. The market puts it at 39% and our match model at 41%, and blending those with recent form gives 40%. The best price, 2.40 at bet365, is shorter than our fair price of 2.50. The pick won.

How our predictions work · Championship table

More Championship predictions

All Championship picks that week →
1–1 FT Birmingham City v Derby County Birmingham City to win 54% 0–0 FT Millwall v Ipswich Town Ipswich Town to win 43% 1–0 FT Coventry City v Swansea City Coventry City to win 61% 0–0 FT Middlesbrough v Blackburn Rovers Middlesbrough to win 52% 2–2 FT Sheffield Wednesday v Hull City Hull City to win 52% 1–2 FT West Bromwich Albion v Bristol City West Bromwich Albion to win 49% 2–1 FT Oxford United v Southampton Southampton to win 48% 1–0 FT Norwich City v Charlton Athletic Norwich City to win 46%
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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.