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Watford v Birmingham City prediction

Thu 1 Jan, 15:00 Championship Full time 3–0
Our pick, revealed after full time Won
Watford to win 46%
Watford 46% Draw 27% Birmingham 27%
Best price2.20 WilliamHill Fair price2.19 from our 46%

How we got to 46%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 43%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 50%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceWatford to win 46%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Watford All games D D W W W
1–1 v SHF 2–2 at WXH 1–0 v STK 2–1 at LEI 1–0 at NOR
Birmingham City All games L D L D D
1–2 at QPR 1–1 v CHA 0–3 at SHU 1–1 v DRB 1–1 v SOU

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes56% Both teams scored in 4 of Watford's last 6 home games. Both teams scored in 4 of Birmingham City's last 6 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerWatfordDrawBirmingham
WilliamHill 2.20 3.25 3.20
bet365 2.20 3.30 3.25
Betfair 2.10 3.30 3.25
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Watford v Birmingham City: prediction and result

Watford hosted Birmingham City in the Championship on Thursday 1 January and won 3–0.

Watford are in strong form: 3 won, 2 drawn and 0 lost from their last 5, 11 points from a possible 15. They have scored 7 and conceded 4 in that run. Their last game was a 1–0 win away at Norwich City.

Birmingham City are short of results: 0 won, 3 drawn and 2 lost from their last 5, 3 points from a possible 15. They have scored 4 and conceded 8 in that run. Their last game was a 1–1 draw at home to Southampton.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 2.20 for Watford, 3.30 for the draw and 3.25 for Birmingham. The bookmakers make Watford favourites, at about 43% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Watford to win, with a 46% chance. The market puts it at 43% and our match model at 50%, and blending those with recent form gives 46%. The best price, 2.20 at WilliamHill, is longer than our fair price of 2.19, so there is value in it. The pick won.

How our predictions work · Championship table

More Championship predictions

All Championship picks that week →
0–2 FT Blackburn Rovers v Wrexham Blackburn Rovers to win 44% 2–1 FT Ipswich Town v Oxford United Ipswich Town to win 67% 3–0 FT Preston North End v Sheffield Wednesday Preston North End to win 57% 5–0 FT Bristol City v Portsmouth Bristol City to win 57% 0–0 FT Southampton v Millwall Southampton to win 47% 1–2 FT Queens Park Rangers v Norwich City Queens Park Rangers to win 47% 0–1 FT Hull City v Stoke City Hull City to win 43% 1–1 FT Charlton Athletic v Coventry City Coventry City to win 42%
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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.