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Aston Villa v Brentford prediction

Sun 1 Feb, 14:00 Premier League Full time 0–1
Our pick, revealed after full time Lost
Aston Villa to win 48%
Aston Villa 48% Draw 26% Brentford 26%
Best price2.30 WilliamHill Fair price2.09 from our 48%

How we got to 48%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 41%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 58%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceAston Villa to win 48%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Aston Villa All games L W D L W
1–4 at ARS 3–1 v NFO 0–0 at CRY 0–1 v EVE 2–0 at NEW
Brentford All games D W W L L
0–0 v TOT 4–2 at EVE 3–0 v SUN 0–2 at CHE 0–2 v NFO

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes53% Both teams scored in 3 of Aston Villa's last 6 home games. Both teams scored in 2 of Brentford's last 6 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerAston VillaDrawBrentford
WilliamHill 2.30 3.10 3.10
bet365 2.30 3.40 3.10
Betfair 2.25 3.25 3.20
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Aston Villa v Brentford: prediction and result

Aston Villa hosted Brentford in the Premier League on Sunday 1 February, and Brentford won 0–1 away from home.

Aston Villa are in decent form: 2 won, 1 drawn and 2 lost from their last 5, 7 points from a possible 15. They have scored 6 and conceded 6 in that run. Their last game was a 2–0 win away at Newcastle United.

Brentford are in decent form: 2 won, 1 drawn and 2 lost from their last 5, 7 points from a possible 15. They have scored 7 and conceded 6 in that run. Their last game was a 0–2 defeat at home to Nottingham Forest.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 2.30 for Aston Villa, 3.40 for the draw and 3.20 for Brentford. The bookmakers make Aston Villa favourites, at about 42% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Aston Villa to win, with a 48% chance. The market puts it at 41% and our match model at 58%, and blending those with recent form gives 48%. The best price, 2.30 at WilliamHill, is longer than our fair price of 2.09, so there is value in it. The pick lost.

How our predictions work · Premier League table

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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.