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AFC Bournemouth v Aston Villa prediction

Sat 7 Feb, 15:00 Premier League Full time 1–1
Our pick, revealed after full time Lost
Aston Villa to win 40%
AFC Bournemouth 35% Draw 25% Aston Villa 40%
Best price2.40 bet365 Fair price2.53 from our 40%

How we got to 40%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 39%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 40%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceAston Villa to win 40%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
AFC Bournemouth All games L W D W W
2–3 v ARS 3–2 v TOT 1–1 at BHA 3–2 v LIV 2–0 at WOL
Aston Villa All games W D L W L
3–1 v NFO 0–0 at CRY 0–1 v EVE 2–0 at NEW 0–1 v BRE

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes63% Both teams scored in 4 of AFC Bournemouth's last 6 home games. Both teams scored in 4 of Aston Villa's last 6 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerAFC BournemouthDrawAston Villa
bet365 2.80 3.60 2.40
WilliamHill 2.75 3.50 2.38
Betfair 2.75 3.50 2.38
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

AFC Bournemouth v Aston Villa: prediction and result

AFC Bournemouth hosted Aston Villa in the Premier League on Saturday 7 February, and it finished 1–1.

AFC Bournemouth are in decent form: 3 won, 1 drawn and 1 lost from their last 5, 10 points from a possible 15. They have scored 11 and conceded 8 in that run. Their last game was a 2–0 win away at Wolverhampton Wanderers.

Aston Villa are in decent form: 2 won, 1 drawn and 2 lost from their last 5, 7 points from a possible 15. They have scored 5 and conceded 3 in that run. Their last game was a 0–1 defeat at home to Brentford.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 2.80 for AFC Bournemouth, 3.60 for the draw and 2.40 for Aston Villa. The bookmakers make Aston Villa favourites, at about 40% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Aston Villa to win, with a 40% chance. The market puts it at 39% and our match model at 40%, and blending those with recent form gives 40%. The best price, 2.40 at bet365, is shorter than our fair price of 2.53. The pick lost.

How our predictions work · Premier League table

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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.