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Watford v Derby County prediction

Sat 21 Feb, 15:00 Championship Full time 2–0
Our pick, revealed after full time Won
Watford to win 50%
Watford 50% Draw 25% Derby 25%
Best price2.05 WilliamHill Fair price2.02 from our 50%

How we got to 50%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 54%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 43%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceWatford to win 50%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Watford All games D L D L D
1–1 at BBR 0–2 v SWA 0–0 at HUL 0–1 at SOU 2–2 at PNE
Derby County All games W D W L W
2–1 at CHA 1–1 v WBA 5–0 at BSC 1–2 v IPS 2–0 v SWA

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes51% Both teams scored in 2 of Watford's last 6 home games. Both teams scored in 3 of Derby County's last 6 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerWatfordDrawDerby
WilliamHill 2.05 3.30 3.50
bet365 1.95 3.40 3.80
Betfair 1.33 4.50 9.00
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Watford v Derby County: prediction and result

Watford hosted Derby County in the Championship on Saturday 21 February and won 2–0.

Watford are short of results: 0 won, 3 drawn and 2 lost from their last 5, 3 points from a possible 15. They have scored 3 and conceded 6 in that run. Their last game was a 2–2 draw away at Preston North End.

Derby County are in decent form: 3 won, 1 drawn and 1 lost from their last 5, 10 points from a possible 15. They have scored 11 and conceded 4 in that run. Their last game was a 2–0 win at home to Swansea City.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 2.05 for Watford, 4.50 for the draw and 9.00 for Derby. The bookmakers make Watford favourites, at about 59% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Watford to win, with a 50% chance. The market puts it at 54% and our match model at 43%, and blending those with recent form gives 50%. The best price, 2.05 at WilliamHill, is longer than our fair price of 2.02, so there is value in it. The pick won.

How our predictions work · Championship table

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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.