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Millwall v Derby County prediction

Tue 10 Mar, 19:45 Championship Full time 1–0
Our pick, revealed after full time Won
Millwall to win 48%
Millwall 48% Draw 27% Derby 26%
Best price2.00 Betfair Fair price2.10 from our 48%

How we got to 48%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 47%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 48%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceMillwall to win 48%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Millwall All games W L W W W
2–1 at SHF 1–3 v PTM 3–0 v BRC 2–0 at PNE 3–1 at HUL
Derby County All games W L L W W
2–0 v SWA 0–2 at WAT 2–4 at HUL 3–1 v BBR 2–1 v SHF

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes56% Both teams scored in 4 of Millwall's last 6 home games. Both teams scored in 3 of Derby County's last 6 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerMillwallDrawDerby
Betfair 2.00 3.50 3.75
WilliamHill 1.95 3.25 3.75
bet365 1.95 3.40 3.75
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Millwall v Derby County: prediction and result

Millwall hosted Derby County in the Championship on Tuesday 10 March and won 1–0.

Millwall are in strong form: 4 won, 0 drawn and 1 lost from their last 5, 12 points from a possible 15. They have scored 11 and conceded 5 in that run. Their last game was a 3–1 win away at Hull City.

Derby County are in decent form: 3 won, 0 drawn and 2 lost from their last 5, 9 points from a possible 15. They have scored 9 and conceded 8 in that run. Their last game was a 2–1 win at home to Sheffield Wednesday.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 2.00 for Millwall, 3.50 for the draw and 3.75 for Derby. The bookmakers make Millwall favourites, at about 48% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Millwall to win, with a 48% chance. The market puts it at 47% and our match model at 48%, and blending those with recent form gives 48%. The best price, 2.00 at Betfair, is shorter than our fair price of 2.10. The pick won.

How our predictions work · Championship table

More Championship predictions

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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.