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AFC Wimbledon v Blackpool prediction

Wed 11 Mar, 19:45 League One Full time 4–1
Our pick, revealed after full time Won
AFC Wimbledon to win 44%
AFC Wimbledon 44% Draw 28% Blackpool 28%
Best price2.35 bet365 Fair price2.28 from our 44%

How we got to 44%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 40%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 50%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceAFC Wimbledon to win 44%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
AFC Wimbledon All games D L W D W
3–3 at BRS 1–4 at CDF 3–1 v BDC 2–2 at MAN 1–0 v NHT
Blackpool All games L W D L D
0–4 v PLA 1–0 v MAN 2–2 at BOL 0–4 at LNC 1–1 v WIG

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes51% Both teams scored in 2 of AFC Wimbledon's last 6 home games. Both teams scored in 4 of Blackpool's last 6 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerAFC WimbledonDrawBlackpool
bet365 2.35 3.20 3.00
Betfair 2.30 3.10 2.90
WilliamHill 2.25 3.00 3.10
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

AFC Wimbledon v Blackpool: prediction and result

AFC Wimbledon hosted Blackpool in the League One on Wednesday 11 March and won 4–1.

AFC Wimbledon are in decent form: 2 won, 2 drawn and 1 lost from their last 5, 8 points from a possible 15. They have scored 10 and conceded 10 in that run. Their last game was a 1–0 win at home to Northampton Town.

Blackpool are in mixed form: 1 won, 2 drawn and 2 lost from their last 5, 5 points from a possible 15. They have scored 4 and conceded 11 in that run. Their last game was a 1–1 draw at home to Wigan Athletic.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 2.35 for AFC Wimbledon, 3.20 for the draw and 3.10 for Blackpool. The bookmakers make AFC Wimbledon favourites, at about 40% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: AFC Wimbledon to win, with a 44% chance. The market puts it at 40% and our match model at 50%, and blending those with recent form gives 44%. The best price, 2.35 at bet365, is longer than our fair price of 2.28, so there is value in it. The pick won.

How our predictions work · League One table

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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.