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Newport County v Crawley Town prediction

Fri 3 Apr, 15:00 League Two Full time 0–2
Our pick, revealed after full time Won
Crawley Town to win 46%
Newport 31% Draw 23% Crawley 46%
Best price2.80 bet365 Fair price2.18 from our 46%

How we got to 46%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 53%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 35%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceCrawley Town to win 46%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Newport County All games L W L L W
1–2 v CLU 2–1 at BNT 0–1 v BMY 1–2 at WSL 1–0 v SHT
Crawley Town All games D D D L W
2–2 v SWI 0–0 at CLU 1–1 v BNT 0–1 at FLT 2–0 v GLG

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes47% Both teams scored in 2 of Newport County's last 6 home games. Both teams scored in 0 of Crawley Town's last 6 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerNewportDrawCrawley
Betfair 67.00 15.00 1.03
WilliamHill 2.50 3.10 2.75
bet365 2.45 3.30 2.80
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Newport County v Crawley Town: prediction and result

Newport County hosted Crawley Town in the League Two on Friday 3 April, and Crawley Town won 0–2 away from home.

Newport County are in mixed form: 2 won, 0 drawn and 3 lost from their last 5, 6 points from a possible 15. They have scored 5 and conceded 6 in that run. Their last game was a 1–0 win at home to Shrewsbury Town.

Crawley Town are in mixed form: 1 won, 3 drawn and 1 lost from their last 5, 6 points from a possible 15. They have scored 5 and conceded 4 in that run. Their last game was a 2–0 win at home to Gillingham.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 67.00 for Newport, 15.00 for the draw and 2.80 for Crawley. The bookmakers make Crawley Town favourites, at about 81% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Crawley Town to win, with a 46% chance. The market puts it at 53% and our match model at 35%, and blending those with recent form gives 46%. The best price, 2.80 at bet365, is longer than our fair price of 2.18, so there is value in it. The pick won.

How our predictions work · League Two table

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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.