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AFC Wimbledon v Luton Town prediction

Mon 6 Apr, 15:00 League One Full time 0–3
Our pick, revealed after full time Won
Luton Town to win 42%
AFC Wimbledon 31% Draw 27% Luton 42%
Best price2.00 WilliamHill Fair price2.41 from our 42%

How we got to 42%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 47%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 34%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceLuton Town to win 42%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
AFC Wimbledon All games L L D L L
0–1 at STV 2–4 v LEY 1–1 v PTU 0–3 at STO 0–1 at LNC
Luton Town All games D W W D W
1–1 at DNR 2–1 at WYC 3–2 v EXE 1–1 v STO 2–1 v PTU

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes58% Both teams scored in 5 of AFC Wimbledon's last 6 home games. Both teams scored in 4 of Luton Town's last 6 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerAFC WimbledonDrawLuton
bet365 3.70 3.60 1.95
Betfair 3.50 3.25 2.00
WilliamHill 3.40 3.30 2.00
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

AFC Wimbledon v Luton Town: prediction and result

AFC Wimbledon hosted Luton Town in the League One on Monday 6 April, and Luton Town won 0–3 away from home.

AFC Wimbledon are short of results: 0 won, 1 drawn and 4 lost from their last 5, 1 points from a possible 15. They have scored 3 and conceded 10 in that run. Their last game was a 0–1 defeat away at Lincoln City.

Luton Town are in strong form: 3 won, 2 drawn and 0 lost from their last 5, 11 points from a possible 15. They have scored 9 and conceded 6 in that run. Their last game was a 2–1 win at home to Peterborough United.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 3.70 for AFC Wimbledon, 3.60 for the draw and 2.00 for Luton. The bookmakers make Luton Town favourites, at about 48% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Luton Town to win, with a 42% chance. The market puts it at 47% and our match model at 34%, and blending those with recent form gives 42%. The best price, 2.00 at WilliamHill, is shorter than our fair price of 2.41. The pick won.

How our predictions work · League One table

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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.