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Southampton v Derby County prediction

Sat 11 Apr, 15:00 Championship Full time 2–1
Our pick, revealed after full time Won
Southampton to win 57%
Southampton 57% Draw 24% Derby 19%
Best price1.65 bet365 Fair price1.75 from our 57%

How we got to 57%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 57%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 57%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceSouthampton to win 57%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Southampton All games D W W W W
1–1 at WBA 2–1 at CVC 1–0 v NOR 2–0 v OXF 5–1 at WXH
Derby County All games L W W L W
0–1 at MLW 1–0 at PTM 1–0 v BRC 2–3 at CVC 2–0 v STK

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes48% Both teams scored in 1 of Southampton's last 6 home games. Both teams scored in 2 of Derby County's last 6 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerSouthamptonDrawDerby
bet365 1.65 3.90 4.75
Betfair 1.62 3.75 5.00
WilliamHill 1.60 3.90 5.00
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Southampton v Derby County: prediction and result

Southampton hosted Derby County in the Championship on Saturday 11 April and won 2–1.

Southampton are in strong form: 4 won, 1 drawn and 0 lost from their last 5, 13 points from a possible 15. They have scored 11 and conceded 3 in that run. Their last game was a 5–1 win away at Wrexham.

Derby County are in decent form: 3 won, 0 drawn and 2 lost from their last 5, 9 points from a possible 15. They have scored 6 and conceded 4 in that run. Their last game was a 2–0 win at home to Stoke City.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 1.65 for Southampton, 3.90 for the draw and 5.00 for Derby. The bookmakers make Southampton favourites, at about 57% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Southampton to win, with a 57% chance. The market puts it at 57% and our match model at 57%, and blending those with recent form gives 57%. The best price, 1.65 at bet365, is shorter than our fair price of 1.75. The pick won.

How our predictions work · Championship table

More Championship predictions

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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.