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Aston Villa v Manchester City prediction

Sun 26 Oct, 14:00 Premier League Full time 1–0
Our pick, revealed after full time Lost
Manchester City to win 49%
Aston Villa 26% Draw 25% Man City 49%
Best price1.84 Marathonbet Fair price2.05 from our 49%

How we got to 49%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 52%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 44%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceManchester City to win 49%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Aston Villa All games W W
2–1 v BUR 2–1 at TOT
Manchester City All games W W
1–0 at BRE 2–0 v EVE

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes58% Both teams scored in 1 of Aston Villa's last 1 home games. Both teams scored in 0 of Manchester City's last 1 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerAston VillaDrawMan City
Ladbrokes 4.33 3.80 1.75
bet365 4.20 3.75 1.83
Marathonbet 4.15 3.98 1.84
WilliamHill 4.00 3.80 1.83
Betfair 4.00 3.50 1.70
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Aston Villa v Manchester City: prediction and result

Aston Villa hosted Manchester City in the Premier League on Sunday 26 October and won 1–0.

Aston Villa are in strong form: 2 won, 0 drawn and 0 lost from their last 2, 6 points from a possible 6. They have scored 4 and conceded 2 in that run. Their last game was a 2–1 win away at Tottenham Hotspur.

Manchester City are in strong form: 2 won, 0 drawn and 0 lost from their last 2, 6 points from a possible 6. They have scored 3 and conceded 0 in that run. Their last game was a 2–0 win at home to Everton.

The best prices across 5 UK bookmakers are 4.33 for Aston Villa, 3.98 for the draw and 1.84 for Man City. The bookmakers make Manchester City favourites, at about 53% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Manchester City to win, with a 49% chance. The market puts it at 52% and our match model at 44%, and blending those with recent form gives 49%. The best price, 1.84 at Marathonbet, is shorter than our fair price of 2.05. The pick lost.

How our predictions work · Premier League table

More Premier League predictions

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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.