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Sunderland v Newcastle United prediction

Sun 14 Dec, 14:00 Premier League Full time 1–0
Our pick, revealed after full time Lost
Newcastle United to win 42%
Sunderland 30% Draw 28% Newcastle 42%
Best price2.15 WilliamHill Fair price2.38 from our 42%

How we got to 42%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 44%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 39%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceNewcastle United to win 42%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Sunderland All games D L W D L
2–2 v ARS 0–1 at FUL 3–2 v BOU 1–1 at LIV 0–3 at MCI
Newcastle United All games L W W D W
1–3 at BRE 2–1 v MCI 4–1 at EVE 2–2 v TOT 2–1 v BUR

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes54% Both teams scored in 3 of Sunderland's last 4 home games. Both teams scored in 4 of Newcastle United's last 4 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerSunderlandDrawNewcastle
bet365 3.50 3.40 2.15
WilliamHill 3.40 3.25 2.15
Betfair 3.25 3.00 2.00
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Sunderland v Newcastle United: prediction and result

Sunderland hosted Newcastle United in the Premier League on Sunday 14 December and won 1–0.

Sunderland are in mixed form: 1 won, 2 drawn and 2 lost from their last 5, 5 points from a possible 15. They have scored 6 and conceded 9 in that run. Their last game was a 0–3 defeat away at Manchester City.

Newcastle United are in decent form: 3 won, 1 drawn and 1 lost from their last 5, 10 points from a possible 15. They have scored 11 and conceded 8 in that run. Their last game was a 2–1 win at home to Burnley.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 3.50 for Sunderland, 3.40 for the draw and 2.15 for Newcastle. The bookmakers make Newcastle United favourites, at about 45% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Newcastle United to win, with a 42% chance. The market puts it at 44% and our match model at 39%, and blending those with recent form gives 42%. The best price, 2.15 at WilliamHill, is shorter than our fair price of 2.38. The pick lost.

How our predictions work · Premier League table

More Premier League predictions

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2–0 FT Chelsea v Everton Chelsea to win 56% 2–0 FT Liverpool v Brighton & Hove Albion Liverpool to win 52% 2–3 FT Burnley v Fulham Fulham to win 47% 2–1 FT Arsenal v Wolverhampton Wanderers Arsenal to win 83% 0–3 FT Crystal Palace v Manchester City Manchester City to win 52% 2–3 FT West Ham United v Aston Villa Aston Villa to win 49% 3–0 FT Nottingham Forest v Tottenham Hotspur Nottingham Forest to win 40% 1–1 FT Brentford v Leeds United Brentford to win 45%
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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.