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AFC Wimbledon v Exeter City prediction

Mon 29 Dec, 19:45 League One Full time 0–1
Our pick, revealed after full time Lost
AFC Wimbledon to win 42%
AFC Wimbledon 42% Draw 29% Exeter 29%
Best price2.45 WilliamHill Fair price2.38 from our 42%

How we got to 42%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 38%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 48%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceAFC Wimbledon to win 42%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
AFC Wimbledon All games D L D L D
3–3 at HDD 0–1 at EXE 0–0 v MAN 1–3 at NHT 0–0 v STV
Exeter City All games L W L W L
0–1 at BDC 1–0 v AWM 1–2 at BOL 3–0 v BRS 0–1 at CDF

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes49% Both teams scored in 2 of AFC Wimbledon's last 5 home games. Both teams scored in 2 of Exeter City's last 5 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerAFC WimbledonDrawExeter
WilliamHill 2.45 2.90 3.00
bet365 2.45 3.10 2.90
Betfair 2.40 3.00 3.20
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

AFC Wimbledon v Exeter City: prediction and result

AFC Wimbledon hosted Exeter City in the League One on Monday 29 December, and Exeter City won 0–1 away from home.

AFC Wimbledon are short of results: 0 won, 3 drawn and 2 lost from their last 5, 3 points from a possible 15. They have scored 4 and conceded 7 in that run. Their last game was a 0–0 draw at home to Stevenage.

Exeter City are in mixed form: 2 won, 0 drawn and 3 lost from their last 5, 6 points from a possible 15. They have scored 5 and conceded 4 in that run. Their last game was a 0–1 defeat away at Cardiff City.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 2.45 for AFC Wimbledon, 3.10 for the draw and 3.20 for Exeter. The bookmakers make AFC Wimbledon favourites, at about 39% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: AFC Wimbledon to win, with a 42% chance. The market puts it at 38% and our match model at 48%, and blending those with recent form gives 42%. The best price, 2.45 at WilliamHill, is longer than our fair price of 2.38, so there is value in it. The pick lost.

How our predictions work · League One table

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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.