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Derby County v Middlesbrough prediction

Thu 1 Jan, 15:00 Championship Full time 1–0
Our pick, revealed after full time Lost
Middlesbrough to win 41%
Derby 31% Draw 28% Middlesbrough 41%
Best price2.50 bet365 Fair price2.45 from our 41%

How we got to 41%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 39%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 44%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceMiddlesbrough to win 41%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Derby County All games D W D D L
1–1 v MLW 3–0 at SHF 1–1 v PTM 1–1 at BRC 1–2 at LEI
Middlesbrough All games W W L D L
2–1 at CHA 3–1 v QPR 0–2 at BSC 0–0 v BBR 0–1 v HUL

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes56% Both teams scored in 5 of Derby County's last 6 home games. Both teams scored in 4 of Middlesbrough's last 6 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerDerbyDrawMiddlesbrough
Betfair 2.90 3.20 2.30
WilliamHill 2.90 3.20 2.38
bet365 2.80 3.25 2.50
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Derby County v Middlesbrough: prediction and result

Derby County hosted Middlesbrough in the Championship on Thursday 1 January and won 1–0.

Derby County are in mixed form: 1 won, 3 drawn and 1 lost from their last 5, 6 points from a possible 15. They have scored 7 and conceded 5 in that run. Their last game was a 1–2 defeat away at Leicester City.

Middlesbrough are in decent form: 2 won, 1 drawn and 2 lost from their last 5, 7 points from a possible 15. They have scored 5 and conceded 5 in that run. Their last game was a 0–1 defeat at home to Hull City.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 2.90 for Derby, 3.25 for the draw and 2.50 for Middlesbrough. The bookmakers make Middlesbrough favourites, at about 38% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Middlesbrough to win, with a 41% chance. The market puts it at 39% and our match model at 44%, and blending those with recent form gives 41%. The best price, 2.50 at bet365, is longer than our fair price of 2.45, so there is value in it. The pick lost.

How our predictions work · Championship table

More Championship predictions

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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.