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Exeter City v Luton Town prediction

Thu 1 Jan, 15:00 League One Full time 1–0
Our pick, revealed after full time Lost
Luton Town to win 39%
Exeter 33% Draw 27% Luton 39%
Best price2.20 WilliamHill Fair price2.54 from our 39%

How we got to 39%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 42%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 35%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceLuton Town to win 39%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Exeter City All games W L W L W
1–0 v AWM 1–2 at BOL 3–0 v BRS 0–1 at CDF 1–0 at AWM
Luton Town All games D D L W W
1–1 at LEY 2–2 v PTV 2–3 at RDG 4–0 v WYC 3–0 v LEY

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes52% Both teams scored in 2 of Exeter City's last 5 home games. Both teams scored in 2 of Luton Town's last 5 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerExeterDrawLuton
WilliamHill 3.20 3.20 2.20
Betfair 3.20 3.25 2.15
bet365 3.10 3.40 2.20
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Exeter City v Luton Town: prediction and result

Exeter City hosted Luton Town in the League One on Thursday 1 January and won 1–0.

Exeter City are in decent form: 3 won, 0 drawn and 2 lost from their last 5, 9 points from a possible 15. They have scored 6 and conceded 3 in that run. Their last game was a 1–0 win away at AFC Wimbledon.

Luton Town are in decent form: 2 won, 2 drawn and 1 lost from their last 5, 8 points from a possible 15. They have scored 12 and conceded 6 in that run. Their last game was a 3–0 win at home to Leyton Orient.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 3.20 for Exeter, 3.40 for the draw and 2.20 for Luton. The bookmakers make Luton Town favourites, at about 43% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Luton Town to win, with a 39% chance. The market puts it at 42% and our match model at 35%, and blending those with recent form gives 39%. The best price, 2.20 at WilliamHill, is shorter than our fair price of 2.54. The pick lost.

How our predictions work · League One table

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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.