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Middlesbrough v Southampton prediction

Sun 4 Jan, 15:00 Championship Full time 4–0
Our pick, revealed after full time Won
Middlesbrough to win 43%
Middlesbrough 43% Draw 25% Southampton 32%
Best price2.20 WilliamHill Fair price2.32 from our 43%

How we got to 43%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 42%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 44%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceMiddlesbrough to win 43%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Middlesbrough All games W L D L L
3–1 v QPR 0–2 at BSC 0–0 v BBR 0–1 v HUL 0–1 at DRB
Southampton All games L D L D D
1–2 at NOR 1–1 v CVC 1–2 at OXF 1–1 at BRC 0–0 v MLW

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes63% Both teams scored in 4 of Middlesbrough's last 6 home games. Both teams scored in 6 of Southampton's last 6 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerMiddlesbroughDrawSouthampton
WilliamHill 2.20 3.40 2.90
Betfair 2.20 3.70 2.90
bet365 2.20 3.75 3.00
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Middlesbrough v Southampton: prediction and result

Middlesbrough hosted Southampton in the Championship on Sunday 4 January and won 4–0.

Middlesbrough are in mixed form: 1 won, 1 drawn and 3 lost from their last 5, 4 points from a possible 15. They have scored 3 and conceded 5 in that run. Their last game was a 0–1 defeat away at Derby County.

Southampton are short of results: 0 won, 3 drawn and 2 lost from their last 5, 3 points from a possible 15. They have scored 4 and conceded 6 in that run. Their last game was a 0–0 draw at home to Millwall.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 2.20 for Middlesbrough, 3.75 for the draw and 3.00 for Southampton. The bookmakers make Middlesbrough favourites, at about 43% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Middlesbrough to win, with a 43% chance. The market puts it at 42% and our match model at 44%, and blending those with recent form gives 43%. The best price, 2.20 at WilliamHill, is shorter than our fair price of 2.32. The pick won.

How our predictions work · Championship table

More Championship predictions

All Championship picks that week →
0–2 FT Blackburn Rovers v Wrexham Blackburn Rovers to win 44% 2–1 FT Ipswich Town v Oxford United Ipswich Town to win 67% 3–0 FT Preston North End v Sheffield Wednesday Preston North End to win 57% 5–0 FT Bristol City v Portsmouth Bristol City to win 57% 0–0 FT Southampton v Millwall Southampton to win 47% 1–2 FT Queens Park Rangers v Norwich City Queens Park Rangers to win 47% 3–0 FT Watford v Birmingham City Watford to win 46% 0–1 FT Hull City v Stoke City Hull City to win 43%
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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.