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Millwall v Swansea City prediction

Sun 4 Jan, 15:00 Championship Full time 2–1
Our pick, revealed after full time Won
Millwall to win 45%
Millwall 45% Draw 28% Swansea 27%
Best price2.10 WilliamHill Fair price2.25 from our 45%

How we got to 45%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 45%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 45%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceMillwall to win 45%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Millwall All games L L D W D
1–3 v HUL 0–2 at BBR 0–0 v IPS 2–1 v BSC 0–0 at SOU
Swansea City All games L W L W W
1–2 at STK 2–1 v WXH 0–1 at CVC 1–0 at OXF 1–0 v WBA

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes51% Both teams scored in 4 of Millwall's last 6 home games. Both teams scored in 3 of Swansea City's last 6 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerMillwallDrawSwansea
WilliamHill 2.10 3.00 3.60
Betfair 2.10 3.25 3.75
bet365 2.10 3.10 3.70
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Millwall v Swansea City: prediction and result

Millwall hosted Swansea City in the Championship on Sunday 4 January and won 2–1.

Millwall are in mixed form: 1 won, 2 drawn and 2 lost from their last 5, 5 points from a possible 15. They have scored 3 and conceded 6 in that run. Their last game was a 0–0 draw away at Southampton.

Swansea City are in decent form: 3 won, 0 drawn and 2 lost from their last 5, 9 points from a possible 15. They have scored 5 and conceded 4 in that run. Their last game was a 1–0 win at home to West Bromwich Albion.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 2.10 for Millwall, 3.25 for the draw and 3.75 for Swansea. The bookmakers make Millwall favourites, at about 45% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Millwall to win, with a 45% chance. The market puts it at 45% and our match model at 45%, and blending those with recent form gives 45%. The best price, 2.10 at WilliamHill, is shorter than our fair price of 2.25. The pick won.

How our predictions work · Championship table

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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.