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Port Vale v Exeter City prediction

Sat 24 Jan, 15:00 League One Full time 1–3
Our pick, revealed after full time Lost
Port Vale to win 43%
Port Vale 43% Draw 25% Exeter 32%
Best price8.00 Betfair Fair price2.33 from our 43%

How we got to 43%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 31%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 61%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chancePort Vale to win 43%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Port Vale All games L L L W L
0–1 v PTU 0–5 at HDD 0–1 at BDC 5–1 v BLK 0–3 at MAN
Exeter City All games L W W D W
0–1 at CDF 1–0 at AWM 1–0 v LUT 2–2 at HDD 3–0 v STV

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes52% Both teams scored in 1 of Port Vale's last 5 home games. Both teams scored in 3 of Exeter City's last 6 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerPort ValeDrawExeter
Betfair 8.00 3.50 1.53
WilliamHill 2.30 3.10 2.90
bet365 2.30 3.30 3.10
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Port Vale v Exeter City: prediction and result

Port Vale hosted Exeter City in the League One on Saturday 24 January, and Exeter City won 1–3 away from home.

Port Vale are short of results: 1 won, 0 drawn and 4 lost from their last 5, 3 points from a possible 15. They have scored 5 and conceded 11 in that run. Their last game was a 0–3 defeat away at Mansfield Town.

Exeter City are in decent form: 3 won, 1 drawn and 1 lost from their last 5, 10 points from a possible 15. They have scored 7 and conceded 3 in that run. Their last game was a 3–0 win at home to Stevenage.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 8.00 for Port Vale, 3.50 for the draw and 3.10 for Exeter. The bookmakers make Exeter City favourites, at about 44% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Port Vale to win, with a 43% chance. The market puts it at 31% and our match model at 61%, and blending those with recent form gives 43%. The best price, 8.00 at Betfair, is longer than our fair price of 2.33, so there is value in it. The pick lost.

How our predictions work · League One table

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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.