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Portsmouth v Derby County prediction

Mon 16 Mar, 20:00 Championship Full time 0–1
Our pick, revealed after full time Lost
Portsmouth to win 43%
Portsmouth 43% Draw 28% Derby 29%
Best price2.15 WilliamHill Fair price2.32 from our 43%

How we got to 43%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 44%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 42%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chancePortsmouth to win 43%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Portsmouth All games W L L D L
3–1 at MLW 1–2 at WXH 0–1 v HUL 1–1 at BBR 1–2 v SWA
Derby County All games L L W W L
0–2 at WAT 2–4 at HUL 3–1 v BBR 2–1 v SHF 0–1 at MLW

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes50% Both teams scored in 3 of Portsmouth's last 6 home games. Both teams scored in 2 of Derby County's last 6 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerPortsmouthDrawDerby
WilliamHill 2.15 3.10 3.40
Betfair 2.15 3.25 3.50
bet365 2.10 3.25 3.50
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Portsmouth v Derby County: prediction and result

Portsmouth hosted Derby County in the Championship on Monday 16 March, and Derby County won 0–1 away from home.

Portsmouth are in mixed form: 1 won, 1 drawn and 3 lost from their last 5, 4 points from a possible 15. They have scored 6 and conceded 7 in that run. Their last game was a 1–2 defeat at home to Swansea City.

Derby County are in mixed form: 2 won, 0 drawn and 3 lost from their last 5, 6 points from a possible 15. They have scored 7 and conceded 9 in that run. Their last game was a 0–1 defeat away at Millwall.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 2.15 for Portsmouth, 3.25 for the draw and 3.50 for Derby. The bookmakers make Portsmouth favourites, at about 44% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Portsmouth to win, with a 43% chance. The market puts it at 44% and our match model at 42%, and blending those with recent form gives 43%. The best price, 2.15 at WilliamHill, is shorter than our fair price of 2.32. The pick lost.

How our predictions work · Championship table

More Championship predictions

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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.