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Newport County v Shrewsbury Town prediction

Sat 28 Mar, 15:00 League Two Full time 1–0
Our pick, revealed after full time Won
Newport County to win 38%
Newport 38% Draw 28% Shrewsbury 34%
Best price2.40 Betfair Fair price2.60 from our 38%

How we got to 38%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 39%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 37%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceNewport County to win 38%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Newport County All games W L W L L
3–1 v TRR 1–2 v CLU 2–1 at BNT 0–1 v BMY 1–2 at WSL
Shrewsbury Town All games L W L L L
1–2 v WSL 3–2 at CST 0–2 v CTT 0–1 at BRR 0–4 v CAX

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes50% Both teams scored in 3 of Newport County's last 6 home games. Both teams scored in 2 of Shrewsbury Town's last 6 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerNewportDrawShrewsbury
Betfair 2.40 3.10 2.90
bet365 2.35 3.20 3.00
WilliamHill 2.30 3.00 3.00
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Newport County v Shrewsbury Town: prediction and result

Newport County hosted Shrewsbury Town in the League Two on Saturday 28 March and won 1–0.

Newport County are in mixed form: 2 won, 0 drawn and 3 lost from their last 5, 6 points from a possible 15. They have scored 7 and conceded 7 in that run. Their last game was a 1–2 defeat away at Walsall.

Shrewsbury Town are short of results: 1 won, 0 drawn and 4 lost from their last 5, 3 points from a possible 15. They have scored 4 and conceded 11 in that run. Their last game was a 0–4 defeat at home to Crewe Alexandra.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 2.40 for Newport, 3.20 for the draw and 3.00 for Shrewsbury. The bookmakers make Newport County favourites, at about 39% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Newport County to win, with a 38% chance. The market puts it at 39% and our match model at 37%, and blending those with recent form gives 38%. The best price, 2.40 at Betfair, is shorter than our fair price of 2.60. The pick won.

How our predictions work · League Two table

More League Two predictions

All League Two picks that week →
3–0 FT Oldham Athletic v Notts County Notts County to win 37% 0–2 FT Harrogate Town v Notts County Notts County to win 51% 2–0 FT Bristol Rovers v Accrington Stanley Bristol Rovers to win 49% 2–1 FT Barrow v Bromley Bromley to win 47% 1–1 FT Swindon Town v Fleetwood Town Swindon Town to win 45% 1–1 FT Colchester United v Walsall Colchester United to win 43% 2–0 FT Crawley Town v Gillingham Crawley Town to win 42% 2–1 FT Crewe Alexandra v Oldham Athletic Oldham Athletic to win 38%
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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.