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Cheltenham Town v Newport County prediction

Sat 18 Apr, 15:00 League Two Full time 1–0
Our pick, revealed after full time Won
Cheltenham Town to win 43%
Cheltenham 43% Draw 28% Newport 29%
Best price2.40 WilliamHill Fair price2.33 from our 43%

How we got to 43%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 38%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 50%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceCheltenham Town to win 43%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Cheltenham Town All games L L D W W
2–5 at NOT 0–1 at CST 1–1 v CMU 4–0 at WSL 2–1 v GLG
Newport County All games L W L L W
1–2 at WSL 1–0 v SHT 0–2 v CRT 1–3 at NOT 2–1 v HAT

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes58% Both teams scored in 6 of Cheltenham Town's last 6 home games. Both teams scored in 4 of Newport County's last 6 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerCheltenhamDrawNewport
WilliamHill 2.40 3.10 2.88
bet365 2.40 3.00 3.00
Betfair 2.38 3.00 3.00
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Cheltenham Town v Newport County: prediction and result

Cheltenham Town hosted Newport County in the League Two on Saturday 18 April and won 1–0.

Cheltenham Town are in decent form: 2 won, 1 drawn and 2 lost from their last 5, 7 points from a possible 15. They have scored 9 and conceded 8 in that run. Their last game was a 2–1 win at home to Gillingham.

Newport County are in mixed form: 2 won, 0 drawn and 3 lost from their last 5, 6 points from a possible 15. They have scored 5 and conceded 8 in that run. Their last game was a 2–1 win at home to Harrogate Town.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 2.40 for Cheltenham, 3.10 for the draw and 3.00 for Newport. The bookmakers make Cheltenham Town favourites, at about 39% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Cheltenham Town to win, with a 43% chance. The market puts it at 38% and our match model at 50%, and blending those with recent form gives 43%. The best price, 2.40 at WilliamHill, is longer than our fair price of 2.33, so there is value in it. The pick won.

How our predictions work · League Two table

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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.