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Norwich City v Derby County prediction

Tue 21 Apr, 19:45 Championship Full time 2–1
Our pick, revealed after full time Won
Norwich City to win 47%
Norwich 47% Draw 25% Derby 28%
Best price2.20 bet365 Fair price2.15 from our 47%

How we got to 47%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 43%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 52%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceNorwich City to win 47%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Norwich City All games W D W L W
1–0 at CHA 1–1 v PTM 2–1 at MLW 0–2 v IPS 4–2 at BSC
Derby County All games W L W L W
1–0 v BRC 2–3 at CVC 2–0 v STK 1–2 at SOU 1–0 v OXF

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes56% Both teams scored in 3 of Norwich City's last 6 home games. Both teams scored in 3 of Derby County's last 6 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerNorwichDrawDerby
bet365 2.20 3.40 3.20
WilliamHill 2.15 3.30 3.20
Betfair 2.10 3.30 3.25
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Norwich City v Derby County: prediction and result

Norwich City hosted Derby County in the Championship on Tuesday 21 April and won 2–1.

Norwich City are in decent form: 3 won, 1 drawn and 1 lost from their last 5, 10 points from a possible 15. They have scored 8 and conceded 6 in that run. Their last game was a 4–2 win away at Bristol City.

Derby County are in decent form: 3 won, 0 drawn and 2 lost from their last 5, 9 points from a possible 15. They have scored 7 and conceded 5 in that run. Their last game was a 1–0 win at home to Oxford United.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 2.20 for Norwich, 3.40 for the draw and 3.25 for Derby. The bookmakers make Norwich City favourites, at about 43% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Norwich City to win, with a 47% chance. The market puts it at 43% and our match model at 52%, and blending those with recent form gives 47%. The best price, 2.20 at bet365, is longer than our fair price of 2.15, so there is value in it. The pick won.

How our predictions work · Championship table

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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.