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Manchester City v Aston Villa prediction

Sun 24 May, 16:00 Premier League Full time 1–2
Our pick, revealed after full time Lost
Manchester City to win 65%
Man City 65% Draw 20% Aston Villa 15%
Best price1.44 Betfair Fair price1.54 from our 65%

How we got to 65%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 67%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 62%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceManchester City to win 65%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Manchester City All games W D W W D
1–0 at BUR 3–3 at EVE 3–0 v BRE 3–0 v CRY 1–1 at BOU
Aston Villa All games W L L D W
4–3 v SUN 0–1 at FUL 1–2 v TOT 2–2 at BUR 4–2 v LIV

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes58% Both teams scored in 3 of Manchester City's last 6 home games. Both teams scored in 4 of Aston Villa's last 6 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerMan CityDrawAston Villa
Betfair 1.44 4.75 6.50
bet365 1.42 5.00 6.50
WilliamHill 1.35 5.00 7.50
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Manchester City v Aston Villa: prediction and result

Manchester City hosted Aston Villa in the Premier League on Sunday 24 May, and Aston Villa won 1–2 away from home.

Manchester City are in strong form: 3 won, 2 drawn and 0 lost from their last 5, 11 points from a possible 15. They have scored 11 and conceded 4 in that run. Their last game was a 1–1 draw away at AFC Bournemouth.

Aston Villa are in decent form: 2 won, 1 drawn and 2 lost from their last 5, 7 points from a possible 15. They have scored 11 and conceded 10 in that run. Their last game was a 4–2 win at home to Liverpool.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 1.44 for Man City, 5.00 for the draw and 7.50 for Aston Villa. The bookmakers make Manchester City favourites, at about 68% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Manchester City to win, with a 65% chance. The market puts it at 67% and our match model at 62%, and blending those with recent form gives 65%. The best price, 1.44 at Betfair, is shorter than our fair price of 1.54. The pick lost.

How our predictions work · Premier League table

More Premier League predictions

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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.