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Derby County v Watford prediction

Sat 22 Nov, 15:00 Championship Full time 2–3
Our pick, revealed after full time Lost
Derby County to win 43%
Derby 43% Draw 29% Watford 28%
Best price2.40 bet365 Fair price2.31 from our 43%

How we got to 43%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 39%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 50%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceDerby County to win 43%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Derby County All games W W W W W
1–0 v NOR 1–0 v QPR 3–1 at SHU 2–1 v HUL 2–1 at BBR
Watford All games W L W D D
2–1 v WBA 1–3 at CVC 3–0 v MID 1–1 at IPS 1–1 v BSC

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes46% Both teams scored in 1 of Derby County's last 3 home games. Both teams scored in 2 of Watford's last 3 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerDerbyDrawWatford
bet365 2.40 3.20 3.00
WilliamHill 2.40 3.00 3.00
Betfair 2.30 3.00 2.80
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Derby County v Watford: prediction and result

Derby County hosted Watford in the Championship on Saturday 22 November, and Watford won 2–3 away from home.

Derby County are in strong form: 5 won, 0 drawn and 0 lost from their last 5, 15 points from a possible 15. They have scored 9 and conceded 3 in that run. Their last game was a 2–1 win away at Blackburn Rovers.

Watford are in decent form: 2 won, 2 drawn and 1 lost from their last 5, 8 points from a possible 15. They have scored 8 and conceded 6 in that run. Their last game was a 1–1 draw at home to Bristol City.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 2.40 for Derby, 3.20 for the draw and 3.00 for Watford. The bookmakers make Derby County favourites, at about 39% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Derby County to win, with a 43% chance. The market puts it at 39% and our match model at 50%, and blending those with recent form gives 43%. The best price, 2.40 at bet365, is longer than our fair price of 2.31, so there is value in it. The pick lost.

How our predictions work · Championship table

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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.