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Leeds United v Aston Villa prediction

Sun 23 Nov, 14:00 Premier League Full time 1–2
Our pick, revealed after full time Lost
Leeds United to win 39%
Leeds 39% Draw 26% Aston Villa 35%
Best price3.20 WilliamHill Fair price2.55 from our 39%

How we got to 39%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 29%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 54%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceLeeds United to win 39%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Leeds United All games L W L L
0–2 at BUR 2–1 v WHU 0–3 at BHA 1–3 at NFO
Aston Villa All games W W W L W
2–1 v BUR 2–1 at TOT 1–0 v MCI 0–2 at LIV 4–0 v BOU

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes55% Both teams scored in 1 of Leeds United's last 1 home games. Both teams scored in 1 of Aston Villa's last 2 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerLeedsDrawAston Villa
WilliamHill 3.20 3.20 2.25
bet365 3.20 3.30 2.25
Betfair 3.00 3.00 2.20
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Leeds United v Aston Villa: prediction and result

Leeds United hosted Aston Villa in the Premier League on Sunday 23 November, and Aston Villa won 1–2 away from home.

Leeds United are short of results: 1 won, 0 drawn and 3 lost from their last 4, 3 points from a possible 12. They have scored 3 and conceded 9 in that run. Their last game was a 1–3 defeat away at Nottingham Forest.

Aston Villa are in strong form: 4 won, 0 drawn and 1 lost from their last 5, 12 points from a possible 15. They have scored 9 and conceded 4 in that run. Their last game was a 4–0 win at home to AFC Bournemouth.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 3.20 for Leeds, 3.30 for the draw and 2.25 for Aston Villa. The bookmakers make Aston Villa favourites, at about 42% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Leeds United to win, with a 39% chance. The market puts it at 29% and our match model at 54%, and blending those with recent form gives 39%. The best price, 3.20 at WilliamHill, is longer than our fair price of 2.55, so there is value in it. The pick lost.

How our predictions work · Premier League table

More Premier League predictions

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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.