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Derby County v Leicester City prediction

Sat 6 Dec, 12:30 Championship Full time 1–3
Our pick, revealed after full time Lost
Derby County to win 37%
Derby 37% Draw 29% Leicester 34%
Best price2.75 WilliamHill Fair price2.70 from our 37%

How we got to 37%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 35%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 41%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceDerby County to win 37%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Derby County All games W W L W L
2–1 v HUL 2–1 at BBR 2–3 v WAT 2–1 at SWA 1–2 at MID
Leicester City All games D W W L L
1–1 v MID 2–1 at NOR 2–1 v STK 0–3 at SOU 2–3 v SHU

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes51% Both teams scored in 2 of Derby County's last 4 home games. Both teams scored in 2 of Leicester City's last 4 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerDerbyDrawLeicester
WilliamHill 2.75 3.00 2.62
bet365 2.70 3.25 2.70
Betfair 2.60 2.90 2.60
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Derby County v Leicester City: prediction and result

Derby County hosted Leicester City in the Championship on Saturday 6 December, and Leicester City won 1–3 away from home.

Derby County are in decent form: 3 won, 0 drawn and 2 lost from their last 5, 9 points from a possible 15. They have scored 9 and conceded 8 in that run. Their last game was a 1–2 defeat away at Middlesbrough.

Leicester City are in decent form: 2 won, 1 drawn and 2 lost from their last 5, 7 points from a possible 15. They have scored 7 and conceded 9 in that run. Their last game was a 2–3 defeat at home to Sheffield United.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 2.75 for Derby, 3.25 for the draw and 2.70 for Leicester. The bookmakers see little between Leicester City and Derby County here.

Our prediction: Derby County to win, with a 37% chance. The market puts it at 35% and our match model at 41%, and blending those with recent form gives 37%. The best price, 2.75 at WilliamHill, is longer than our fair price of 2.70, so there is value in it. The pick lost.

How our predictions work · Championship table

More Championship predictions

All Championship picks that week →
1–1 FT Blackburn Rovers v Ipswich Town Ipswich Town to win 46% 1–4 FT Hull City v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough to win 42% 3–2 FT Watford v Norwich City Watford to win 51% 4–0 FT Sheffield United v Stoke City Sheffield United to win 47% 0–1 FT Bristol City v Millwall Bristol City to win 45% 2–0 FT Swansea City v Oxford United Swansea City to win 43% 3–0 FT Ipswich Town v Coventry City Ipswich Town to win 43% 3–1 FT Southampton v Birmingham City Southampton to win 41%
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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.