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Arsenal v Aston Villa prediction

Tue 30 Dec, 20:15 Premier League Full time 4–1
Our pick, revealed after full time Won
Arsenal to win 67%
Arsenal 67% Draw 19% Aston Villa 14%
Best price1.36 WilliamHill Fair price1.48 from our 67%

How we got to 67%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 69%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 65%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceArsenal to win 67%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Arsenal All games W L W W W
2–0 v BRE 1–2 at AVL 2–1 v WOL 1–0 at EVE 2–1 v BHA
Aston Villa All games W W W W W
4–3 at BHA 2–1 v ARS 3–2 at WHU 2–1 v MUN 2–1 at CHE

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes52% Both teams scored in 3 of Arsenal's last 5 home games. Both teams scored in 5 of Aston Villa's last 6 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerArsenalDrawAston Villa
WilliamHill 1.36 5.00 7.50
Betfair 1.36 5.00 8.00
bet365 1.36 5.25 7.50
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Arsenal v Aston Villa: prediction and result

Arsenal hosted Aston Villa in the Premier League on Tuesday 30 December and won 4–1.

Arsenal are in strong form: 4 won, 0 drawn and 1 lost from their last 5, 12 points from a possible 15. They have scored 8 and conceded 4 in that run. Their last game was a 2–1 win at home to Brighton & Hove Albion.

Aston Villa are in strong form: 5 won, 0 drawn and 0 lost from their last 5, 15 points from a possible 15. They have scored 13 and conceded 8 in that run. Their last game was a 2–1 win away at Chelsea.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 1.36 for Arsenal, 5.25 for the draw and 8.00 for Aston Villa. The bookmakers make Arsenal favourites, at about 70% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Arsenal to win, with a 67% chance. The market puts it at 69% and our match model at 65%, and blending those with recent form gives 67%. The best price, 1.36 at WilliamHill, is shorter than our fair price of 1.48. The pick won.

How our predictions work · Premier League table

More Premier League predictions

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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.