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Burnley v Newcastle United prediction

Tue 30 Dec, 19:30 Premier League Full time 1–3
Our pick, revealed after full time Won
Newcastle United to win 54%
Burnley 23% Draw 23% Newcastle 54%
Best price1.57 WilliamHill Fair price1.85 from our 54%

How we got to 54%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 60%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 45%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceNewcastle United to win 54%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Burnley All games L L L D D
0–1 v CRY 1–2 at NEW 2–3 v FUL 1–1 at BOU 0–0 v EVE
Newcastle United All games D W L D L
2–2 v TOT 2–1 v BUR 0–1 at SUN 2–2 v CHE 0–1 at MUN

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes50% Both teams scored in 1 of Burnley's last 6 home games. Both teams scored in 4 of Newcastle United's last 6 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerBurnleyDrawNewcastle
Betfair 5.50 4.20 1.53
bet365 5.50 4.20 1.57
WilliamHill 5.00 4.00 1.57
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Burnley v Newcastle United: prediction and result

Burnley hosted Newcastle United in the Premier League on Tuesday 30 December, and Newcastle United won 1–3 away from home.

Burnley are short of results: 0 won, 2 drawn and 3 lost from their last 5, 2 points from a possible 15. They have scored 4 and conceded 7 in that run. Their last game was a 0–0 draw at home to Everton.

Newcastle United are in mixed form: 1 won, 2 drawn and 2 lost from their last 5, 5 points from a possible 15. They have scored 6 and conceded 7 in that run. Their last game was a 0–1 defeat away at Manchester United.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 5.50 for Burnley, 4.20 for the draw and 1.57 for Newcastle. The bookmakers make Newcastle United favourites, at about 60% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Newcastle United to win, with a 54% chance. The market puts it at 60% and our match model at 45%, and blending those with recent form gives 54%. The best price, 1.57 at WilliamHill, is shorter than our fair price of 1.85. The pick won.

How our predictions work · Premier League table

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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.