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Chelsea v Burnley prediction

Sat 21 Feb, 15:00 Premier League Full time 1–1
Our pick, revealed after full time Lost
Chelsea to win 75%
Chelsea 75% Draw 16% Burnley 9%
Best price1.25 bet365 Fair price1.33 from our 75%

How we got to 75%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 80%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 68%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceChelsea to win 75%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Chelsea All games W W W W D
2–0 v BRE 3–1 at CRY 3–2 v WHU 3–1 at WOL 2–2 v LEE
Burnley All games D D L L W
1–1 at LIV 2–2 v TOT 0–3 at SUN 0–2 v WHU 3–2 at CRY

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes53% Both teams scored in 4 of Chelsea's last 6 home games. Both teams scored in 4 of Burnley's last 6 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerChelseaDrawBurnley
bet365 1.25 6.25 11.00
WilliamHill 1.22 6.00 11.00
Betfair 1.07 11.00 41.00
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Chelsea v Burnley: prediction and result

Chelsea hosted Burnley in the Premier League on Saturday 21 February, and it finished 1–1.

Chelsea are in strong form: 4 won, 1 drawn and 0 lost from their last 5, 13 points from a possible 15. They have scored 13 and conceded 6 in that run. Their last game was a 2–2 draw at home to Leeds United.

Burnley are in mixed form: 1 won, 2 drawn and 2 lost from their last 5, 5 points from a possible 15. They have scored 6 and conceded 10 in that run. Their last game was a 3–2 win away at Crystal Palace.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 1.25 for Chelsea, 11.00 for the draw and 41.00 for Burnley. The bookmakers make Chelsea favourites, at about 87% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Chelsea to win, with a 75% chance. The market puts it at 80% and our match model at 68%, and blending those with recent form gives 75%. The best price, 1.25 at bet365, is shorter than our fair price of 1.33. The pick lost.

How our predictions work · Premier League table

More Premier League predictions

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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.