Port Vale v Reading prediction

Port Vale hosted Reading in the League One on Saturday 21 February, and it finished 1–1.

Port Vale are in mixed form: 1 won, 1 drawn and 3 lost from their last 5, 4 points from a possible 15. They have scored 5 and conceded 8 in that run. Their last game was a 1–2 defeat away at Stevenage.

Reading are in decent form: 3 won, 1 drawn and 1 lost from their last 5, 10 points from a possible 15. They have scored 10 and conceded 7 in that run. Their last game was a 1–1 draw at home to Bolton Wanderers.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 3.00 for Port Vale, 3.25 for the draw and 2.50 for Reading. The bookmakers make Reading favourites, at about 38% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Reading to win, with a 37% chance. The market puts it at 37% and our match model at 36%, and blending those with recent form gives 37%. The best price, 2.50 at Betfair, is shorter than our fair price of 2.72. The pick lost.

How our predictions work · League One table