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Burton Albion v Stevenage prediction

Sat 7 Mar, 15:00 League One Full time 0–1
Our pick, revealed after full time Lost
Burton Albion to win 40%
Burton 40% Draw 29% Stevenage 32%
Best price2.63 Betfair Fair price2.53 from our 40%

How we got to 40%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 37%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 43%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceBurton Albion to win 40%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Burton Albion All games W D W L D
1–0 v RTU 1–1 at LUT 3–0 v STO 0–3 at WYC 1–1 at EXE
Stevenage All games L W W L W
1–3 at NHT 1–0 v HDD 2–1 v PTV 1–3 at WYC 2–1 v STO

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes52% Both teams scored in 3 of Burton Albion's last 6 home games. Both teams scored in 5 of Stevenage's last 6 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerBurtonDrawStevenage
Betfair 2.63 2.88 3.00
WilliamHill 2.45 3.00 2.88
bet365 2.40 3.20 2.87
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Burton Albion v Stevenage: prediction and result

Burton Albion hosted Stevenage in the League One on Saturday 7 March, and Stevenage won 0–1 away from home.

Burton Albion are in decent form: 2 won, 2 drawn and 1 lost from their last 5, 8 points from a possible 15. They have scored 6 and conceded 5 in that run. Their last game was a 1–1 draw away at Exeter City.

Stevenage are in decent form: 3 won, 0 drawn and 2 lost from their last 5, 9 points from a possible 15. They have scored 7 and conceded 8 in that run. Their last game was a 2–1 win at home to Stockport County.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 2.63 for Burton, 3.20 for the draw and 3.00 for Stevenage. The bookmakers see little between Burton Albion and Stevenage here.

Our prediction: Burton Albion to win, with a 40% chance. The market puts it at 37% and our match model at 43%, and blending those with recent form gives 40%. The best price, 2.63 at Betfair, is longer than our fair price of 2.53, so there is value in it. The pick lost.

How our predictions work · League One table

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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.