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Manchester United v Aston Villa prediction

Sun 15 Mar, 14:00 Premier League Full time 3–1
Our pick, revealed after full time Won
Manchester United to win 53%
Man United 53% Draw 24% Aston Villa 24%
Best price1.72 bet365 Fair price1.90 from our 53%

How we got to 53%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 55%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 49%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceManchester United to win 53%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Manchester United All games W D W W L
2–0 v TOT 1–1 at WHU 1–0 at EVE 2–1 v CRY 1–2 at NEW
Aston Villa All games D W D L L
1–1 at BOU 1–0 v BHA 1–1 v LEE 0–2 at WOL 1–4 v CHE

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes56% Both teams scored in 3 of Manchester United's last 6 home games. Both teams scored in 3 of Aston Villa's last 6 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerMan UnitedDrawAston Villa
bet365 1.72 4.10 4.33
WilliamHill 1.70 3.90 4.50
Betfair 1.67 4.00 4.60
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Manchester United v Aston Villa: prediction and result

Manchester United hosted Aston Villa in the Premier League on Sunday 15 March and won 3–1.

Manchester United are in decent form: 3 won, 1 drawn and 1 lost from their last 5, 10 points from a possible 15. They have scored 7 and conceded 4 in that run. Their last game was a 1–2 defeat away at Newcastle United.

Aston Villa are in mixed form: 1 won, 2 drawn and 2 lost from their last 5, 5 points from a possible 15. They have scored 4 and conceded 8 in that run. Their last game was a 1–4 defeat at home to Chelsea.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 1.72 for Man United, 4.10 for the draw and 4.60 for Aston Villa. The bookmakers make Manchester United favourites, at about 56% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Manchester United to win, with a 53% chance. The market puts it at 55% and our match model at 49%, and blending those with recent form gives 53%. The best price, 1.72 at bet365, is shorter than our fair price of 1.90. The pick won.

How our predictions work · Premier League table

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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.