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Derby County v Birmingham City prediction

Sat 21 Mar, 12:30 Championship Full time 1–0
Our pick, revealed after full time Lost
Birmingham City to win 37%
Derby 35% Draw 28% Birmingham 37%
Best price2.55 bet365 Fair price2.71 from our 37%

How we got to 37%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 37%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 37%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceBirmingham City to win 37%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Derby County All games L W W L W
2–4 at HUL 3–1 v BBR 2–1 v SHF 0–1 at MLW 1–0 at PTM
Birmingham City All games L L L W D
0–3 at MLW 1–3 v MID 0–1 at CHA 1–0 v QPR 1–1 v SHU

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes56% Both teams scored in 5 of Derby County's last 6 home games. Both teams scored in 2 of Birmingham City's last 6 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerDerbyDrawBirmingham
bet365 2.70 3.30 2.55
Betfair 2.63 3.25 2.50
WilliamHill 2.62 3.20 2.50
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Derby County v Birmingham City: prediction and result

Derby County hosted Birmingham City in the Championship on Saturday 21 March and won 1–0.

Derby County are in decent form: 3 won, 0 drawn and 2 lost from their last 5, 9 points from a possible 15. They have scored 8 and conceded 7 in that run. Their last game was a 1–0 win away at Portsmouth.

Birmingham City are in mixed form: 1 won, 1 drawn and 3 lost from their last 5, 4 points from a possible 15. They have scored 3 and conceded 8 in that run. Their last game was a 1–1 draw at home to Sheffield United.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 2.70 for Derby, 3.30 for the draw and 2.55 for Birmingham. The bookmakers see little between Birmingham City and Derby County here.

Our prediction: Birmingham City to win, with a 37% chance. The market puts it at 37% and our match model at 37%, and blending those with recent form gives 37%. The best price, 2.55 at bet365, is shorter than our fair price of 2.71. The pick lost.

How our predictions work · Championship table

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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.