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Burton Albion v AFC Wimbledon prediction

Sat 11 Apr, 15:00 League One Full time 1–0
Our pick, revealed after full time Won
Burton Albion to win 49%
Burton 49% Draw 27% AFC Wimbledon 24%
Best price1.83 bet365 Fair price2.04 from our 49%

How we got to 49%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 51%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 46%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceBurton Albion to win 49%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Burton Albion All games L W L D D
1–2 v RDG 2–1 v BDC 0–1 at BLK 1–1 v BRS 0–0 at MAN
AFC Wimbledon All games L D L L L
2–4 v LEY 1–1 v PTU 0–3 at STO 0–1 at LNC 0–3 v LUT

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes52% Both teams scored in 3 of Burton Albion's last 6 home games. Both teams scored in 3 of AFC Wimbledon's last 6 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerBurtonDrawAFC Wimbledon
bet365 1.83 3.50 4.20
WilliamHill 1.80 3.30 4.20
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Burton Albion v AFC Wimbledon: prediction and result

Burton Albion hosted AFC Wimbledon in the League One on Saturday 11 April and won 1–0.

Burton Albion are in mixed form: 1 won, 2 drawn and 2 lost from their last 5, 5 points from a possible 15. They have scored 4 and conceded 5 in that run. Their last game was a 0–0 draw away at Mansfield Town.

AFC Wimbledon are short of results: 0 won, 1 drawn and 4 lost from their last 5, 1 points from a possible 15. They have scored 3 and conceded 12 in that run. Their last game was a 0–3 defeat at home to Luton Town.

The best prices across 2 UK bookmakers are 1.83 for Burton, 3.50 for the draw and 4.20 for AFC Wimbledon. The bookmakers make Burton Albion favourites, at about 51% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Burton Albion to win, with a 49% chance. The market puts it at 51% and our match model at 46%, and blending those with recent form gives 49%. The best price, 1.83 at bet365, is shorter than our fair price of 2.04. The pick won.

How our predictions work · League One table

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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.