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Queens Park Rangers v Derby County prediction

Sat 25 Apr, 15:00 Championship Full time 2–3
Our pick, revealed after full time Lost
Queens Park Rangers to win 39%
QPR 39% Draw 28% Derby 33%
Best price2.90 WilliamHill Fair price2.59 from our 39%

How we got to 39%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 34%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 45%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceQueens Park Rangers to win 39%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Queens Park Rangers All games W D D L L
2–1 v WAT 1–1 at PNE 0–0 v BSC 0–2 at MLW 1–2 v SWA
Derby County All games L W L W L
2–3 at CVC 2–0 v STK 1–2 at SOU 1–0 v OXF 1–2 at NOR

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes57% Both teams scored in 3 of Queens Park Rangers's last 6 home games. Both teams scored in 4 of Derby County's last 6 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerQPRDrawDerby
WilliamHill 2.90 3.30 2.25
bet365 2.80 3.25 2.20
Betfair 2.38 2.50 3.75
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Queens Park Rangers v Derby County: prediction and result

Queens Park Rangers hosted Derby County in the Championship on Saturday 25 April, and Derby County won 2–3 away from home.

Queens Park Rangers are in mixed form: 1 won, 2 drawn and 2 lost from their last 5, 5 points from a possible 15. They have scored 4 and conceded 6 in that run. Their last game was a 1–2 defeat at home to Swansea City.

Derby County are in mixed form: 2 won, 0 drawn and 3 lost from their last 5, 6 points from a possible 15. They have scored 7 and conceded 7 in that run. Their last game was a 1–2 defeat away at Norwich City.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 2.90 for QPR, 3.30 for the draw and 3.75 for Derby. The bookmakers see little between Queens Park Rangers and the draw here.

Our prediction: Queens Park Rangers to win, with a 39% chance. The market puts it at 34% and our match model at 45%, and blending those with recent form gives 39%. The best price, 2.90 at WilliamHill, is longer than our fair price of 2.59, so there is value in it. The pick lost.

How our predictions work · Championship table

More Championship predictions

All Championship picks that week →
2–2 FT Southampton v Bristol City Southampton to win 64% 5–1 FT Coventry City v Portsmouth Coventry City to win 62% 3–0 FT West Bromwich Albion v Watford West Bromwich Albion to win 54% 1–3 FT Stoke City v Millwall Millwall to win 48% 2–1 FT Norwich City v Derby County Norwich City to win 47% 2–2 FT Leicester City v Hull City Leicester City to win 44% 1–2 FT Queens Park Rangers v Swansea City Queens Park Rangers to win 43% 0–1 FT Oxford United v Wrexham Oxford United to win 37%
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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.