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Bolton Wanderers v Luton Town prediction

Sat 2 May, 15:00 League One Full time 2–3
Our pick, revealed after full time Lost
Bolton Wanderers to win 40%
Bolton 40% Draw 24% Luton 37%
Best price4.20 Betfair Fair price2.51 from our 40%

How we got to 40%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 36%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 46%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceBolton Wanderers to win 40%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Bolton Wanderers All games D L W D D
2–2 v STO 0–2 at CDF 5–1 v STV 3–3 v HDD 1–1 at BDC
Luton Town All games W W D W W
3–0 at AWM 2–1 v NHT 2–2 at MAN 2–0 at RTU 2–1 v BRS

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes65% Both teams scored in 5 of Bolton Wanderers's last 6 home games. Both teams scored in 4 of Luton Town's last 6 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerBoltonDrawLuton
Betfair 4.20 4.20 1.67
WilliamHill 2.20 4.00 2.62
bet365 2.15 4.33 2.60
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Bolton Wanderers v Luton Town: prediction and result

Bolton Wanderers hosted Luton Town in the League One on Saturday 2 May, and Luton Town won 2–3 away from home.

Bolton Wanderers are in mixed form: 1 won, 3 drawn and 1 lost from their last 5, 6 points from a possible 15. They have scored 11 and conceded 9 in that run. Their last game was a 1–1 draw away at Bradford City.

Luton Town are in strong form: 4 won, 1 drawn and 0 lost from their last 5, 13 points from a possible 15. They have scored 11 and conceded 4 in that run. Their last game was a 2–1 win at home to Barnsley.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 4.20 for Bolton, 4.33 for the draw and 2.62 for Luton. The bookmakers make Luton Town favourites, at about 45% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Bolton Wanderers to win, with a 40% chance. The market puts it at 36% and our match model at 46%, and blending those with recent form gives 40%. The best price, 4.20 at Betfair, is longer than our fair price of 2.51, so there is value in it. The pick lost.

How our predictions work · League One table

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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.