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Burnley v Aston Villa prediction

Sun 10 May, 14:00 Premier League Full time 2–2
Our pick, revealed after full time Lost
Aston Villa to win 59%
Burnley 19% Draw 22% Aston Villa 59%
Best price1.50 WilliamHill Fair price1.69 from our 59%

How we got to 59%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 63%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 54%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceAston Villa to win 59%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Burnley All games L L L L L
1–3 at FUL 0–2 v BHA 1–4 at NFO 0–1 v MCI 1–3 at LEE
Aston Villa All games W D W L L
2–0 v WHU 1–1 at NFO 4–3 v SUN 0–1 at FUL 1–2 v TOT

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes51% Both teams scored in 2 of Burnley's last 6 home games. Both teams scored in 3 of Aston Villa's last 6 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerBurnleyDrawAston Villa
Betfair 6.00 4.33 1.47
bet365 6.00 4.50 1.50
WilliamHill 5.80 4.20 1.50
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Burnley v Aston Villa: prediction and result

Burnley hosted Aston Villa in the Premier League on Sunday 10 May, and it finished 2–2.

Burnley are short of results: 0 won, 0 drawn and 5 lost from their last 5, 0 points from a possible 15. They have scored 3 and conceded 13 in that run. Their last game was a 1–3 defeat away at Leeds United.

Aston Villa are in decent form: 2 won, 1 drawn and 2 lost from their last 5, 7 points from a possible 15. They have scored 8 and conceded 7 in that run. Their last game was a 1–2 defeat at home to Tottenham Hotspur.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 6.00 for Burnley, 4.50 for the draw and 1.50 for Aston Villa. The bookmakers make Aston Villa favourites, at about 63% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Aston Villa to win, with a 59% chance. The market puts it at 63% and our match model at 54%, and blending those with recent form gives 59%. The best price, 1.50 at WilliamHill, is shorter than our fair price of 1.69. The pick lost.

How our predictions work · Premier League table

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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.