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Chelsea v Arsenal prediction

Sun 30 Nov, 16:30 Premier League Full time 1–1
Our pick, revealed after full time Lost
Arsenal to win 41%
Chelsea 30% Draw 29% Arsenal 41%
Best price2.45 Betfair Fair price2.44 from our 41%

How we got to 41%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 39%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 44%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceArsenal to win 41%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Chelsea All games W L W W W
3–0 at NFO 1–2 v SUN 1–0 at TOT 3–0 v WOL 2–0 at BUR
Arsenal All games W W W D W
1–0 at FUL 1–0 v CRY 2–0 at BUR 2–2 at SUN 4–1 v TOT

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes51% Both teams scored in 1 of Chelsea's last 2 home games. Both teams scored in 1 of Arsenal's last 3 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerChelseaDrawArsenal
Betfair 3.20 3.10 2.45
WilliamHill 3.00 3.00 2.40
bet365 3.00 3.20 2.45
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Chelsea v Arsenal: prediction and result

Chelsea hosted Arsenal in the Premier League on Sunday 30 November, and it finished 1–1.

Chelsea are in strong form: 4 won, 0 drawn and 1 lost from their last 5, 12 points from a possible 15. They have scored 10 and conceded 2 in that run. Their last game was a 2–0 win away at Burnley.

Arsenal are in strong form: 4 won, 1 drawn and 0 lost from their last 5, 13 points from a possible 15. They have scored 10 and conceded 3 in that run. Their last game was a 4–1 win at home to Tottenham Hotspur.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 3.20 for Chelsea, 3.20 for the draw and 2.45 for Arsenal. The bookmakers make Arsenal favourites, at about 40% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Arsenal to win, with a 41% chance. The market puts it at 39% and our match model at 44%, and blending those with recent form gives 41%. The best price, 2.45 at Betfair, is longer than our fair price of 2.44, so there is value in it. The pick lost.

How our predictions work · Premier League table

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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.