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Brighton & Hove Albion v Aston Villa prediction

Wed 3 Dec, 19:30 Premier League Full time 3–4
Our pick, revealed after full time Lost
Brighton & Hove Albion to win 44%
Brighton 44% Draw 26% Aston Villa 30%
Best price2.30 WilliamHill Fair price2.29 from our 44%

How we got to 44%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 42%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 46%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceBrighton & Hove Albion to win 44%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Brighton & Hove Albion All games L W D W W
2–4 at MUN 3–0 v LEE 0–0 at CRY 2–1 v BRE 2–0 at NFO
Aston Villa All games W L W W W
1–0 v MCI 0–2 at LIV 4–0 v BOU 2–1 at LEE 1–0 v WOL

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes57% Both teams scored in 2 of Brighton & Hove Albion's last 3 home games. Both teams scored in 2 of Aston Villa's last 3 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerBrightonDrawAston Villa
WilliamHill 2.30 3.30 3.10
bet365 2.20 3.40 3.25
Betfair 2.15 3.40 3.20
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Brighton & Hove Albion v Aston Villa: prediction and result

Brighton & Hove Albion hosted Aston Villa in the Premier League on Wednesday 3 December, and Aston Villa won 3–4 away from home.

Brighton & Hove Albion are in decent form: 3 won, 1 drawn and 1 lost from their last 5, 10 points from a possible 15. They have scored 9 and conceded 5 in that run. Their last game was a 2–0 win away at Nottingham Forest.

Aston Villa are in strong form: 4 won, 0 drawn and 1 lost from their last 5, 12 points from a possible 15. They have scored 8 and conceded 3 in that run. Their last game was a 1–0 win at home to Wolverhampton Wanderers.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 2.30 for Brighton, 3.40 for the draw and 3.25 for Aston Villa. The bookmakers make Brighton & Hove Albion favourites, at about 42% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Brighton & Hove Albion to win, with a 44% chance. The market puts it at 42% and our match model at 46%, and blending those with recent form gives 44%. The best price, 2.30 at WilliamHill, is longer than our fair price of 2.29, so there is value in it. The pick lost.

How our predictions work · Premier League table

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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.